Iranian officials are signaling this week that an attack on Israel may not be imminent, nearly a month after the targeted killing in Tehran of Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh.
Despite Jerusalem not claiming responsibility, the Islamic Republic vowed to avenge the assassination on in its soil with a strong response against Israel. However, The Washington Post reported on Wednesday that Tehran is tamping down its urgent rhetoric.
Examples of this potentially different approach cited by the newspaper include a Wednesday statement by the Iranian mission to the United Nations that any response “must be carefully calibrated” to avoid derailing ongoing Gaza ceasefire talks.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has also suggested that an attack might not be coming in the near future. “Time is at our disposal,” Brig. Gen. Ali Mohammad Naeini, the IRGC spokesman, said on Tuesday, according to local media. “And the waiting period for this response could be long.”
Domestic politics could play a role in wanting to avoid a regional war.
President Masoud Pezeshkian, who entered office on July 28, has pleaded with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to avoid a direct attack on Israel, warning that it could threaten his presidency and lead to devastation of Iran’s infrastructure, energy and economy, the London-based Iran International reported earlier this month.
Pezeshkian told the supreme leader that a harsh Israeli counterattack could lead to the collapse of the regime.
Iran’s parliament on Wednesday approved Pezeshkian’s 19-member Cabinet and he has said one of his aims is to work on improving Iran’s economy, which is in shambles.
“We do believe that there is not consensus or unanimity within the Iranian government about what kind of retaliation to do against Israel,” a U.S. official told the Post. “The newly elected Iranian leadership could be playing a role in that.”
Iran’s mission to the United Nations also suggested that an Iranian attack could take place in a different manner than what is expected. In April, Iran launched some 300 missiles and drones in the first-ever direct attack against the Jewish state.
“Perhaps when their eyes are fixed on the skies and their radar screens, they will be taken by surprise from the ground—or perhaps even by a combination of both,” the mission said in its statement.
“The timing, conditions and manner of Iran’s response will be meticulously orchestrated to ensure that it occurs at a moment of maximum surprise,” the statement said.
Also, Hezbollah in Lebanon could still attack Israel soon in retaliation for the targeted killing of its senior leader Fuad Shukr last month.
“The good news is that Iran seems to have been deterred by a massive American show of force. The bad news is that Tehran is goading its proxy Hezbollah to attack, U.S. officials fear,” Post columnist David Ignatius wrote on Wednesday.
“What would Hezbollah do? U.S. officials believe that Hassan Nasrallah, the group’s leader, might have stepped back from a plan to fire a barrage of missiles at Tel Aviv, which could have triggered a region-wide catastrophe. But Nasrallah has vowed to avenge the Israeli assassination last month of Fuad Shukr, his top military commander. And he has many Israeli targets to choose from,” he wrote.
