The powerful tremors felt on Wednesday in Israel, which originated near Cyprus, refocused public attention on how such events might impact the country, particularly through tsunami waves that could affect Mediterranean coastlines and coastal cities.
To understand the tsunami threat’s reality, Ron Avni, an earthquake specialist from Ben-Gurion University of the Negev in Beersheva, discussed with Israel Hayom Israel’s readiness for damage.
“An earthquake occurring in Greece or Cyprus will barely affect us. Even earthquakes exceeding magnitude 5 will still leave us almost untouched,” the researcher explained. “If a 2004 Pacific Ocean earthquake devastated Indonesian coasts, killing hundreds of thousands, and a 2011 destructive earthquake struck Japan’s Fukushima reactors, no comparable danger exists regionally. The Mediterranean Sea’s small size prevents the development of large tsunamis. The most severe scenario brings waves reaching one meter high.”
The country remains unprepared
Nevertheless, Avni delivers no reassuring message and emphasizes that Israelis face exceptional exposure to earthquake damage from the Syrian-African fault. “Statistical projections indicate one [powerful] earthquake per century. The prior earthquake struck in 1927, and now, 98 years later, we sit squarely within the statistical window.”
He continued, “Israel should have prepared substantially for earthquakes, yet in reality, only 87 schools across risk zones have been strengthened from 1,600 functioning regionally. Moreover, five of seven hospitals fail to meet protective requirements. These numbers persist despite a 2008 decision allocating 3.5 billion shekels ($987 million) addressing concerns over 25 years, representing 140 million shekels ($39 million) annually.”
This predicament persisted after 2010, when the Cabinet initiated funding for the sector. Allocation continued approximately two years before stalling when the Finance Ministry demanded that the Health and Education ministries finance structural reinforcement independently.
The saga extended until 2017-2018, when two powerful earthquakes struck Syria and Turkey. In 2019, the government committed five billion shekels ($1.41 billion) for reinforcement, projecting implementation through 2030. Yet even here, only 850 million shekels ($240 million) have materialized. “All while discussing critical infrastructure protection,” Avni clarified.
The nightmare projection—magnitude 7.5 earthquake
Does the once-per-century statistic hold absolutely?
Avni noted this represents an average. “The country’s last [big] earthquake occurred in 1927. Previously, a devastating earthquake demolished Safed city, causing 5,000 fatalities in 1837. Earlier, in 1759, a severe earthquake hit the Bekaa Valley. Though intervals occasionally widened, the average remains roughly centennial. From this perspective, we occupy the danger zone, yet no comprehensive preparation exists, as the state comptroller highlighted in the 2024 earthquake follow-up report.”
Dr. Michael Weiss, Emergency Medicine Department head at Safed Academic College in the Upper Galilee, outlined the nightmare scenario underlying national emergency readiness. “Israel’s earthquake nightmare scenario depicts a magnitude 7.5 earthquake centered in Beit She’an. The scenario projects 16,000 fatalities, 6,000 severe injuries and approximately 377,000 evacuations. Additionally, 10,000 buildings would collapse with tens of thousands sustaining major structural damage,” he said.
Originally published by Israel Hayom.
