Israel’s Central District has been continually disrupted by the piercing sound of a warning siren, signaling a rocket, missile or drone headed its way. In these moments, residents and visitors from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem have only a few minutes to run and seek temporary shelter—whether in an underground parking lot, a small room within an apartment or a public bomb or other shelter.
In stark contrast, the people of Kiryat Shmona and Metula near the Lebanese border often have between zero and 15 seconds to find safety. Frequently, rockets strike before the siren even sounds. Millions of individuals live within Hezbollah’s range, facing constant and imminent danger.
As war with Iran enters its sixth week, thoughts turn to the relentless sorties flown over Iranian airspace by U.S. and Israeli pilots, many of whom operate without rest or nourishment. Young Israeli soldiers endure the springtime mud and cold in Lebanon, another front in this war, demonstrating resilience and determination in the face of adversity.
Iran has attempted to broaden the scope of its attacks, targeting Gulf Cooperation Council countries and striking civilian infrastructure, hotels and airports. The intention behind these actions appears to be drawing these countries into Iran’s sphere of influence. However, these nations are resisting, unwilling to be blackmailed by Iran’s efforts to control the Strait of Hormuz.
And the repercussions extend to Europe, as many countries stand to suffer economically due to instability in the strait. Despite this, there is a notable absence of support from NATO allies.
Lebanon has permitted Hezbollah to operate from its territory, despite U.N. Resolutions 1559 and 1701, using it as a base to launch additional attacks against Israel. Hezbollah continues to fire a minimum of 300 projectiles at Israel, raising the question of whether this will turn into another war against the terror group.
It is imperative to urge Lebanon to assert control over its own country. Pressure should not come solely from Israelis; the Lebanese people must also challenge Hezbollah’s actions. Shi’ite villages near the Blue Line—the temporary border with Israel—have long been used to facilitate attacks. The Israel Defense Forces is clearing this area to safeguard civilians near the Lebanon border. If left unchecked, they will continue to serve Hezbollah’s interests in future conflicts.
For Israelis, the focus remains on the imminent threat posed by Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. As former Israeli international spokesman for the IDF Jonathan Conricus stated, Israel and the United States are likely to achieve significant military objectives, including neutralizing Iran’s nuclear capabilities and ballistic-missile production. He described a gradual weakening of Iranian capabilities and suggested that ultimately, the United States will take a leading role in opening the Strait of Hormuz and applying military tools to counter Iran’s influence.
Still, we cannot dare to imagine that the United States and Israel will achieve their collective objectives within a month. Israelis want nothing short of regime change. No matter who is in charge under the current mullah system in Tehran, it will always be a hegemonic threat to the region and the world.
Despite a vast water shortage and staggering, runaway inflation in Iran, trillions of dollars continue to be spent on military endeavors. Iran has begun using cluster bombs against targets in Israel but is unable to bring in missile supplies and interceptors through the Strait of Hormuz, further complicating the regime’s military objectives.
A key objective is to destabilize the Iranian regime to the point where widespread defections occur. Amid significant U.S. military pressure, there may be early signs of declining morale and defections among Iranian forces. However, public officials must begin declaring their intentions to defect; protesters need to feel free enough to go back on the streets without security forces firing on them; and fighters in Iranian units must start deserting their barracks or their bases, led by their commanders.
After the brutal lessons of last December and January, none of these have yet begun. Yet Washington and Jerusalem cannot give up now and leave some version of the Islamic Republic intact, or these last five weeks and all they have entailed will have been in vain.
