President Donald Trump’s recent decisions and announcements regarding the Middle East have surprised and unsettled Israeli politicians, commentators and the public at large.
First came the direct negotiations between Adam Boehler, the U.S. special envoy for hostage affairs, and Hamas regarding the release of American hostages, which were conducted without the prior knowledge or agreement of the Israeli government.
Then, arguably most importantly for the Israelis, came the urgent “invitation” from Trump to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stand by his side as the president announced the beginning of negotiations between Steve Witkoff, U.S. special envoy to the Middle East, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Since then, contradictory statements by American officials have raised concerns that the president is so eager to reach a deal that would avoid U.S. military intervention in Iran that he might be willing to sign a slightly improved version of the controversial Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement, which would not definitely guarantee that Iran will never develop nuclear weapons.
Trump announced just this week a ceasefire between the United States and the Houthis, leaving Israel to fend for itself. He also casually revealed that there are now only 21 hostages alive in Hamas’s custody, indicating that three others are dead—something Israel has not been able to confirm with absolute certainty.
Finally, “senior administration officials” have hinted publicly that if Israel does not act rapidly, the United States may reach agreements with Saudi Arabia without requiring normalization of relations with Israel.
This raises a pressing question among Israelis: Is the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu so strained that Israel is being cast aside?
While personal relations between the two leaders have experienced ups and downs in the past, they have appeared solid since Trump’s re-election, with Netanyahu suggesting that they share a common perspective on Iran, which remains Israel’s most vital concern.
A Washington Post report, citing unnamed White House sources, claimed that Mike Waltz lost his position as the national security adviser due to “intense coordination” with Netanyahu to push the United States into attacking Iran. However, this has not been confirmed by other sources and may simply reflect intrigue from neo-isolationist elements within the administration.
What now seems to be unfolding is a result of fundamental differences in the personalities of the president and the prime minister.
Trump is an aggressive dealmaker, known for his impulsive and broad-reaching tactics since his second inauguration, particularly regarding tariffs, trade deficits and international conflicts. He is eager to finalize as many deals as possible to boost his popularity and U.S. economic prospects ahead of the midterm elections in November 2026. This desire for rapid progress often leads him to overlook contentious details and take significant risks.
In contrast, Netanyahu is a cautious and risk-averse decision-maker, preferring to deliberate and delay consequential decisions to maximize the chances of successful long-term outcomes.
From Trump’s perspective, he has given Netanyahu everything needed to end the war in Gaza: Weapons, diplomatic cover, and no pressure to provide substantial humanitarian aid—essentially, carte blanche. Yet Netanyahu has not acted decisively, and the situation in Gaza remains unresolved. Hamas, though militarily weakened, still controls the populace, and the fate of the 21 to 24 remaining hostages and their families continues to hang in the balance.
Regarding normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel—and the potential domino effect on other Muslim countries—Trump has been waiting, also in vain, for Israel to propose creative language that could reconcile Saudi Arabia’s need for a fig leaf on the Palestinian issue with the survival of Netanyahu’s governing coalition. This has led to reports highlighting Trump’s willingness to conclude negotiations with Saudi Arabia, involving significant investments in the U.S. economy and the purchase of large amounts of sophisticated weaponry in exchange for the construction of a nuclear reactor for “civilian purposes,” all without demanding Saudi recognition of Israel.
Although such a deal is unlikely to pass the U.S. Senate, where no Democrat would support Trump’s victory, and many Republicans would oppose it in the absence of normalization, the pressure from the Trump administration on Netanyahu is palpable and increasing.
However, it is the Iranian nuclear file, an existential issue for Israel, that occupies Netanyahu’s attention above all else, and justifiably so. There seems to be no diplomatic agreement, short of the complete dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear capabilities, which the Iranian regime will not accept, that would reassure the Israeli public. While waves of Israeli bombings could significantly damage Iran’s nuclear installations, they would not completely destroy them. Despite his verbal threats, Trump appears reluctant to join, let alone lead, an Israeli offensive operation. Can Israel afford to wait for the conclusion of U.S.-Iran negotiations, whether successful or not? The moment of truth is fast approaching.