The war launched by Hamas through its Oct. 7, 2023 pogrom in southern Israel has been a multifront conflagration in which all roads lead to the regime in Tehran. From Gaza to Iraq to Yemen—and as far afield as the metropolitan centers of Europe, North America and Australia—Iran and its proxies have made every effort to internationalize a conflict whose ultimate goal is the destruction of the Jewish state.
It is in Lebanon, however, where Iran’s regional hegemony has had the most impact. As the Trump administration deliberates over an interim peace agreement with Iran that could lead to a more sustained deal, the Israel Defense Forces have been pulled back into Lebanon to deal with the ongoing threat posed by Iran’s Hezbollah proxy.
Hezbollah has not shied away from conflict with Israel. One day after the Hamas massacre, its terror operatives launched drones, rockets and anti-tank missiles across Israel’s northern border, forcing the IDF to fight on a second front alongside Gaza. During those hostilities, Israel eliminated several key Hezbollah leaders, including its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, and carried out an ingenious attack that killed or disabled thousands of Hezbollah fighters when the pagers they were carrying exploded.
Nearly two months after Israel launched a ground offensive in September 2024, U.S. and French diplomats brokered a ceasefire.
In the 18 months since that deal was signed, the border has been restive, but Hezbollah has been largely contained. That changed on March 2, when the terror group once again attacked Israel, this time in retaliation for the elimination of Iranian “Supreme Leader” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Feb. 28, the opening day of the combined U.S.-Israeli military operation against the Tehran regime.
Another ceasefire was agreed in mid-April, which proved hopelessly fragile. According to the Israelis, in the weeks since that one broke down, Hezbollah has fired more than 1,000 rockets and surface-to-air missiles at Israel. It has also introduced First Person View (FPV) drones to the battlefield. Compact, cheap, easily maneuverable, and most of all deadly, FPV drone attacks have so far claimed the lives of at least 10 IDF personnel. Since May 17, Hezbollah has attempted an average of 50 FPV attacks daily.
Israel has stepped up its response, executing 135 attacks on Hezbollah targets last Wednesday and Thursday alone. Israeli fighter jets have also resumed attacks on Beirut, in one instance targeting Ali al-Husni, the commander of the missile unit of the Imam Hossein Division, an Iranian formation that operates alongside Hezbollah.
The United States is broadly supportive of Israel’s counter-offensive, though reportedly nervous that repeated attacks on Beirut could vex the Iranians to the point that they eschew a deal to end the war. Ending the fighting in Lebanon is also one of the official demands stated by the Iranian regime as a condition for a deal with the United States.
On the diplomatic front, arguably the most striking development has been, despite the fighting, the successive rounds of talks between Israel and Lebanese government representatives on what the American sponsors hope will be a permanent peace agreement that brings Lebanon into the fold of the Abraham Accords. The second of the three rounds of talks in Washington, D.C. (with a fourth round scheduled for May 29) was brokered by Trump himself, underlining the personal importance he places on expanding peace agreements between Israel and its Arab neighbors.
An Israeli peace settlement with Lebanon would indeed be historic, conceivably opening the door to similar agreements down the line with Saudi Arabia and even Syria (until recently an Iranian ally) and Iraq (which for now remains an Iranian ally).
At each of those rounds of talks, the Israelis and the Lebanese reached an agreement on extending the ceasefire. However, that decision was never implemented for the simple reason that Lebanon’s legitimate government doesn’t control the south of the country. Hezbollah and its Iranian paymasters remain in power there.
Over the last year, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and his cabinet have become cautiously more open to the idea of a peace deal with Israel and more amenable to sticking their heads above the parapet when it comes to criticizing Hezbollah. Disarming and dismantling Hezbollah is an established goal of international policy, enshrined by U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, passed a full 20 years ago, which states that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) are the only legitimate military formation in the country. It is increasingly a domestic imperative in Lebanon as well.
Resolution 1701 was never applied on the ground because the LAF is not equipped, trained or willing to dislodge Hezbollah from its southern fiefdom, and because Hezbollah has infiltrated Lebanon’s military and its key political institutions. The abiding fear in Lebanon is that a serious attempt by the government to disarm Hezbollah would spark the country’s Shi’ites, who compose nearly 30% of the population, into launching a renewed civil war. But if Hezbollah remains armed and continues terrorizing Israeli communities in the north, then war with Israel is inevitable.
That is perhaps why Aoun has shown a degree of willingness to seize the reins, expressing agreement with the goal of disarming Hezbollah and approving talks with Israeli representatives.
Israel has made no secret of its desire for peace with Lebanon—a country that has plagued Israelis ever since the Palestine Liberation Organization established a presence there in the early 1970s. Three major wars—in 1982, in 2006 and in 2024—have drained the Israelis in terms of both blood and treasure, compelling their young men and women to fight in a land over which they advance no territorial claim nor seek political control, in marked contrast to both Syria and Iran over the last five decades.
With conflict reigniting in Gaza, the Iranian regime still intact and Trump’s exit from the White House less than three years away, Israel badly needs calm and stability on its northern front. Lebanon needs it no less if it is to become a truly independent state with one sovereign authority and no paramilitaries operating within its borders—the sole reason why Israel makes repeated incursions into Lebanese territory.
The mutual interest is clear. What’s needed now is an unprecedented combination of political courage and military determination to bring Lebanon into a post-Hezbollah era. After all, in the Middle East, there are plenty of triggers to start wars, but fleeting opportunities to forge peace can be as infrequent as once in a generation. This, make no mistake, is one of those opportunities.
