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US-Iran talks drift toward collision course

Negotiations framed as diplomacy increasingly resemble preparations for confrontation.

Kushner, Witkoff
Oman’s Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi meets with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, as part of the ongoing Iranian-American negotiations, in Geneva, Feb. 26, 2026. Credit: Oman Ministry of Foreign Affairs/X.
Fiamma Nirenstein is an Italian-Israeli journalist, author and senior research fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA). An adviser on antisemitism to Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, she served in the Italian Parliament (2008-2013) as vice president of the Foreign Affairs Committee. A founding member of the Friends of Israel Initiative, she has written 15 books, including October 7, Antisemitism and the War on the West, and is a leading voice on Israel, the Middle East, Europe and the fight against antisemitism.

The latest round of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear ambitions is being conducted in polite tones and picturesque settings—but beneath the surface, the atmosphere is thick with distrust. The smiling photographs mask a reality far closer to confrontation than compromise.

A meeting held at the waterside residence of Oman’s consul, following indirect U.S.-Iran talks in Geneva, involving President Donald Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, was described as a diplomatic consultation. In truth, these are murky negotiations whose outcome seems largely predetermined.

Iran proposes a temporary pause: three to five years of limits, minimal enrichment at 1.5%, and supervised storage of uranium that is otherwise enriched dangerously close to weapons-grade. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei signals flexibility if talks remain confined to the nuclear file.

Washington is unconvinced. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance have stated plainly that Iran has already violated past commitments and appears ready to do so again. The American demand is therefore uncompromising: dismantle Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan and accept permanent zero enrichment.

Iranian optimism, broadcast outwardly, contrasts sharply with reports—even from opposition channel Iran International—describing harsh exchanges. The polite smiles conceal a looming head-on clash.

Trump himself has publicly committed never to allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. Any agreement that leaves ambiguity risks appearing naïve. And ambiguity is precisely what Tehran offers—time-limited concessions that preserve the regime’s long-term capabilities.

Beyond the nuclear question lie two additional dangers: ballistic missiles and proxy warfare. Iran maintains a vast missile arsenal capable of striking not only Israel but Europe, and it directs armed organizations across the Middle East. This is why Washington defines Iran not merely as a rival but as a strategic threat to the West itself.

Meanwhile, the military backdrop grows heavier: aircraft carriers, advanced fighter jets and the concentration of force in the region. According to an analysis cited by Politico, the possibility that Israel could be drawn into opening the confrontation is openly contemplated.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently urged Israelis to spend Purim at home with their families—a remark that sounded less festive than protective. In a country accustomed to sirens, such advice carries meaning.

The moral imperative created by the tens of thousands murdered in cold blood by the regime transcends national caution and overrides internal opposition.

The negotiations, therefore, resemble not a bridge but a countdown. For decades, Iran has combined ideological hostility with strategic deception. The West hopes for reassurance; Tehran offers postponement.

Between postponement and prevention lies the narrowing space where history often decides.

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