While most of the attention paid to the Nov. 2024 election is centered around the presidential race, the outcome of the Congressional elections—435 House seats and 34 Senate seats—will greatly impact U.S. national security and foreign policy, as well as U.S.-Israel relations and U.S. policy towards Iran’s Ayatollahs.

According to the U.S. Constitution and a litany of precedents, both chambers of Congress are co-equal to the Executive. Thus, Congress is the most powerful legislature in the world, possessing the power of the purse and the muscle to check, defy, oversee and overrule, direct, investigate, suspend, fund and defund the Executive, as well as formulate domestic, foreign and national security policies.

Former Secretary of State Jim Baker used to complain, “You cannot conduct foreign policy with 535 secretaries of state on Capitol Hill.”

The impact of the 2024 Congressional election will be measured by the resulting clout of the “progressive Democrats,” who currently number 96 out of 212 Democrats in the House of Representatives and one out of 51 Democrats in the Senate.

The “progressive” worldview, which is directly related to U.S.-Israel relations and U.S. policy towards Iran’s Ayatollahs, includes the following:

• A drastic cut in the defense budget, impacting the U.S.’s posture of deterrence;
• Multinational/cosmopolitan rather than unilateral/independent foreign and national security policy;
• Policy coordination with the U.N., international organizations and Europe;
• Sacrificing Middle East reality on the altar of an alternate reality (e.g., Islamic terrorism is driven by despair, not by anti-U.S. fanatical religious ideology);
• Ignoring the dominance of fanatic ideology in shaping the ayatollahs’ policy;
• Assuming that generous diplomatic and financial gestures can moderate terror entities (e.g. Iran’s ayatollahs), irrespective of their track record; ruling out regime change and the military option, thus bolstering terrorism.
• Embracing Iran’s ayatollahs and the Muslim Brotherhood, taking lightly their clear and present threat to the U.S. homeland security and devaluing pro-U.S. Arab regimes, which the ayatollahs and the Brotherhood threaten;
• Disregarding the rogue Palestinian intra-Arab track record, which has made Palestinians a role model of intra-Arab terrorism and treachery, as well as the adverse impact of the proposed Palestinian state on U.S. interests;
• Ignoring the benefits of Israel’s control of the Golan Heights and the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria to regional stability, the safety of pro-U.S. Arab regimes and U.S. interests;
• Ignoring Israel’s role as a force and dollar multiplier for the U.S. taxpayer;
• Dismissing the biblical roots of the U.S. Constitution, civil rights, civic system and culture.

Depending on the outcome of the Congressional election, the next chairperson of the House Appropriations Committee—the most crucial committee for U.S.-Israel cooperation, currently chaired by the staunchly pro-Israel Congressman Tom Cole (R-Ok.)—could be Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), a founding member of the Progressive Caucus and a systematic supporter of a proposed Palestinian state. She criticizes the Israeli presence in Judea and Samaria. While she has condemned the Oct. 7 Hamas massacre, she has also called on Israel to abort its military offensive against the perpetrators of the massacre.

Moreover, the Chairperson of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense—which manages many aspects of U.S.-Israel defense cooperation and is currently chaired by Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Cali.), a strong supporter of enhanced cooperation with Israel—could be Rep. Betty McCullum (D-Minn.), who is one of the fiercest critics of Israel on Capitol Hill. 

The chairperson of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on State and Foreign Operations—which deals with foreign aid and is currently chaired by Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fl.), a major supporter of upgraded collaboration with Israel—could be the pro-Israel Rep. Grace Meng (D-N.Y.); but another candidate could be Lois Frankel (D-Fl.), who would be pressured by the “progressives.”

The chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee—currently chaired by the promoter of deeper U.S.-Israel cooperation, Rep. Mike McCaul (R-Tex.) – could be Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), who embraces the State Department’s worldview, supporting a proposed Palestinian state and calling upon Israel to abort its military offensive against Hamas.

Furthermore, the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East—currently chaired by the staunchly pro-Israel Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.)—could be chaired by Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), a lukewarm supporter of Israel who would be under pressure from “progressives” to play down his support of Israel.

While the Progressive Caucus has a very low profile in the Senate, the outcome of the election (with 23 Democrats and 11 Republicans defending their Senate seats) could yield a Republican majority, which would dramatically impact the co-equal power of Congress when arm wrestling the president (if the Republican majority is sustained in the House).

A Senate change in the balance of power would also switch the chairmanship of the Senate Full Appropriations Committee (the most powerful Senate committee) from Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), a Foggy Bottom-like critic of Israel, to Senator Suzan Collins (R-Me.), a supporter of enhanced U.S.-Israel cooperation who opposes any delay in the supply of military systems to Israel.

The chairmanship of the critical Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense (funding U.S.-Israel defense cooperation) could shift from Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mon.) to Sen. Susan Collins (R-Me.) who opposed the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran’s ayatollahs.

The chairmanship of the pivotal Appropriations Subcommittee on State and Foreign Operations could switch from Senator Chris Coon (D-Del.), who echoes the State Department’s criticism of Israel, to Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a harsh critic of the State Department and a staunch supporter of Israel.

The chairmanship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee could switch from retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) to Senator Jim Risch (R-Id.). Both are supporters of upgraded U.S.-Israel cooperation and opposed the 2015 nuclear accord. 

However, a change of majority would change the chairmanship of the Foreign Relations Subcommittee on the Middle East from Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a State Department-like critic of Israel, to Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) a steady supporter of enhanced U.S.-Israel relations.

A focus on the 2024 Congressional elections is advisable in light of the power vested in Congress by the U.S. Constitution. U.S. presidents are not super-legislators, nor do they determine the congressional agenda or congressional leadership. The president proposes but Congress disposes. The president is the commander-in-chief but only as authorized and appropriated by Congress, which has been a strong supporter of the mutually beneficial U.S.-Israel two-way-street cooperation.