Western intelligence sources assess that, despite Israel’s assassinations of Iran’s de facto leader Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani and Basij militia commander Gholam Soleimani, as well as his deputy, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, and the senior circle of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders are not prepared to surrender or seek a ceasefire.
According to these assessments, any serious discussion of a full ceasefire will not begin until the inner circle around Khamenei feels that the country is militarily exhausted and that prolonging the war will deepen the crisis it is facing. They note that Mohsen Rezaei, appointed by Khamenei as his senior military adviser, plays a significant role in the decision-making process.
Rezaei, known for his hawkish views, was among those who in 1988 recommended avoiding a ceasefire with Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War, even after Iranian forces had already been exhausted. Ultimately, it was Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini who decided to accept the ceasefire.
According to Western intelligence officials, the key figures surrounding Khamenei include: Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Parliament speaker of Parliament and former IRGC officer, considered highly influential; Ahmad Vahidi, IRGC general, former minister under presidents Ebrahim Raisi and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the first commander of the Quds Force; and Rahim Safavi, a senior adviser and prominent and influential figure in Iran’s security establishment, particularly in air defense and strategic command. Other influential figures include Majid Mousavi, commander of the IRGC missile unit, and Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the IRGC Navy.
For now, despite heavy strikes, Iran has managed to prevent collapse in its military command structure or leadership. The Iranian military had prepared in advance a plan to ensure that any war against it would be extremely costly for the region and the global economy. The regime’s strategy is based on two main axes:
1. Creating a war atmosphere in Gulf states through a war of attrition using ballistic missiles and drones, while accusing them of assisting the United States.
2. Significantly disrupting maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Western intelligence assessments, Iran is working to drive oil prices up to $200 per barrel ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November, to undermine U.S. President Donald Trump.
They further estimate that Khamenei is likely to adopt a hardline position, refusing to compromise so as not to appear weak or defeated.
However, the deaths of Larijani and Soleimani represent a severe blow to Iran’s leadership structure. Senior Israeli security officials say the assassination has shaken the regime, though they stress that the “hard core” of IRGC commanders, who effectively control Iran, remains intact.
Larijani played a critical role as a “de facto leader” and a counterweight to both the religious and military elites. His assassination further isolates Khamenei. In practice, it is the IRGC generals who hold power, and Larijani’s removal weakens strategic decision-making and disrupts internal political continuity.
The assassination of Soleimani and his deputy carries significant implications for the protests expected to resume in Iran soon. It is seen as retaliation for the mass killings carried out by Basij forces against the Iranian public and may serve as a morale boost for protesters, who expect Israel and the United States to target Basij forces responsible for killing tens of thousands during earlier unrest.
Security sources assess that the assassination could weaken command and operational order within Basij units, which will rush to appoint replacements, especially in operational roles. Israel is expected to continue targeting Basij personnel.
The killing of Larijani intensifies tensions surrounding the designated successor, Mojtaba Khamenei. His father, Ali Khamenei, was eliminated in the opening strike of the war, and his other sons have not yet entered the leadership circle.
With the assassinations creating a vacuum in the ruling power structure, Khamenei faces immense difficulty in consolidating his authority. He lacks a broad support network among politicians, Shi’ite clerics and the military. These developments may delay his consolidation of power and make the regime more vulnerable to internal crises.
According to security officials, Israel’s assassinations have created the potential for a deep crisis within Iran’s governing structure. The regime, already weakened by the loss of its Supreme Leader and senior military commanders, may struggle to make strategic decisions and cope with mounting internal challenges.
On the social level, the assassinations could provide additional momentum for protesters to take to the streets at a moment deemed appropriate, possibly in coordination with signals from Trump.
The recent Israeli operations exposed vulnerabilities in Iran’s political and military centers of power, signaling to protesters that the regime is not invincible and cannot protect its senior leadership. However, there is also the possibility of a reverse effect, where segments of the population may view the strong military authority of the IRGC as the only force capable of maintaining stability.
Through these assassinations, Israel has sent a clear message: it is targeting the core leadership of Iran, those responsible for repressing their own people and supporting terrorist organizations across the Middle East.
The elimination of senior regime figures underscores Israel’s capability to strike directly at the highest levels of Iranian leadership with precise intelligence and advanced operational capacity.
At the same time, it is generating an internal crisis that significantly weakens the regime’s image of strength in the Middle East, as the long-standing myth of an all-powerful clerical regime begins to shatter in the eyes of the Arab world.
Originally published by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.
