The defeat of businessman Tom Steyer in California’s gubernatorial primary and the advancement of progressive Democrat Randy Villegas to the general election in the state’s 22nd Congressional District suggest that the debate over Israel remains unresolved within the California Democratic Party, Jared Sclar, a Democratic consultant based in San Diego, told JNS.
“As we have seen time and again, it is a party that still contains both camps and did not settle the argument in June,” Sclar said. “High-quality and well-funded candidates from either camp can surge in Democratic primaries.”
In California’s 22nd District, Villegas, a political science professor who was endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), defeated fellow Democrat Jasmeet Bains, a California assemblywoman, and will face incumbent Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) in November. Villegas has argued that U.S. taxpayer dollars should not support what he has described as Israel’s “genocide” in Gaza.
Democratic Majority for Israel’s political action committee backed Bains in the race.
Steyer, who had denounced the American Israel Public Affairs Committee as a “dark money organization that should have no place in our politics,” conceded on Tuesday night after failing to secure one of the top two spots in California’s open primary. Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host endorsed by U.S. President Donald Trump, advanced to the general election and will face Democrat Xavier Becerra, the former U.S. secretary of health and human services.
Sclar said those results, along with the defeat of Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, the grandson of a founding member of Fatah, in California’s 48th Congressional District by San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert, whom DMFI’s PAC supported, demonstrate that there was “not a wave in either direction” on Israel-related issues.
A Republican-aligned House super PAC boosted Villegas “because they wanted Valadao to face the weaker Democrat, while Democratic Majority for Israel spent half a million against him,” Sclar told JNS.
“So you had pro-Israel money and Republican money on opposite sides of a Democratic primary, and the Republican thumb on the scale outweighed the pro-Israel one,” he said. “That is a more complicated story than anti-Israel sentiment simply winning.”
Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, told JNS that Steyer’s loss was driven in part by California’s 35-40% base for Republican candidates.
“Hilton got the bulk of that because of his conservative views and the Trump endorsement,” Olsen said. “Once that happened, Steyer and Becerra would have needed to closely split the bulk of the Dem vote to block Hilton out.”
Olsen also argued that Steyer struggled to connect with key Democratic constituencies, stating that he “had little to say to the ethnic minorities that comprise large shares of the Dem primary voting constituency.”
“Becerra’s Latino heritage clearly helped him with the largest minority group and his backing from unions helped with less well-off Dems,” he told JNS. “Steyer ran as a pure progressive, which is a large group within the Dems but not large enough on its own if there’s also not much of an appeal to the downscale non-white community.”
Villegas, by contrast, “was able to garner support in his downscale Latino seat that Steyer was not,” Olsen said.
“Combining the left with enough Latinos was his path to victory,” he added.
Brian Romick, president and CEO of DMFI, told JNS that the organization’s PAC was “proud to join a broad coalition of Democratic groups” that supported Bains, including the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and EMILYs List.
“While we’re disappointed at the outcome of this race, we remain enthusiastic about our record so far this primary cycle,” Romick said. “DMFI PAC was instrumental in helping Johnny Garcia,” a sheriff’s deputy in Bexar County, Texas, “advance in TX-35 against a vile antisemite and in supporting pro-Israel San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert in CA-48—two seats critical to securing a Democratic House majority.”
‘Highly unlikely’
Looking ahead to November, Olsen said Valadao, whose district was redrawn under California’s redistricting measure, is “highly unlikely” to win the general election.
He also sees a difficult path for Hilton, stating that the only way for him to have a chance is to “persuade almost all of the 50-55% of Californians who disapprove of Newsom’s job performance to back him.”
“That’s extremely tough in any event, but against a Latino who did not serve in the Newsom administration—and in the current midterm climate—it’s very hard to see how Hilton can win,” Olsen told JNS.
Sclar was less certain about the 22nd District, calling the race a “toss-up.”
He argued that Villegas is a “weaker, riskier nominee” than Bains would have been and said the Democrat’s comments on Israel are “a harder sell in a moderate, heavily Latino, agricultural district than a moderate doctor would have been, and the race there will turn on cost of living, water and immigration, not Israel.”
Hilton’s chances in the governor’s race are “slim,” Sclar added.
“No Republican has won the governorship here since 2006, and the registration numbers coupled with the toxicity of the Trump/Republican brand in California are insurmountable,” he said.
According to Sclar, Trump’s endorsement helped consolidate Republican support behind Hilton during the primary but “is an anchor on him in a blue-state general.”
