“A partial deal will bury those who are left behind,” Shimon Or, whose nephew Avinatan Or is a captive in the Gaza Strip, told JNS on Sunday.
“The chances of those who stay behind to live and get their freedom back after agreeing to a partial deal are null,” he added.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday morning called for an agreement to return Israeli held by Hamas. “Make the deal in Gaza. Get the hostages back!!!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
The post comes after the president on Friday indicated that a ceasefire-for-captives agreement could be hammered out this week.
“I think it’s close. I just spoke to some of the people involved. We think within the next week we’re going to get a ceasefire,” Trump told reporters at the White House.
Terrorists in the Gaza Strip are holding 50 hostages, according to Israeli estimates. They are 49 of the 251 people abducted by Hamas-led terrorists during the Oct. 7, 2023, onslaught, and the body of Lt. Hadar Goldin, an Israeli soldier killed in Gaza on Aug. 1, 2014.
Avinatan was kidnapped from the Supernova music festival on Oct. 7, 2023, together with his girlfriend, Noa Argamani, who was since redeemed in an IDF rescue operation.
In March, Israel received the first sign of life regarding Avinatan since his capture.
During debriefings of freed hostages who were held in central Gaza, it emerged that several of them had seen Avinatan. They described severe detention conditions, being deprived of food and given minimal water.
Or told JNS that currently, Israel has an opportunity to bring all hostages back by giving Hamas an ultimatum.
“We can ensure that we will let them live, make clear that they don’t have a chance of achieving their goals, and demand that they let the hostages go. If we seem decisive, Hamas will understand they have no chance to get what they want,” he said.
“They will be offered a chance to evacuate Gaza and return our hostages,” he continued. “This is even more possible now, given Israel’s huge successes in the Lebanese and Iranian arenas. These two successes isolate Hamas and can be leveraged to win the war, but we must be determined and be willing to enter Gaza and assume military and civilian responsibility.”
Or said that establishing complete control in Gaza—while offering stability and a vision for the future—would signal to the local population that Hamas’s grip is weakening, encouraging cooperation with Israel and potentially aiding in the recovery of the hostages.
Peace deals, Or said, will not solve the problem of Hamas in Gaza. Israel must do that itself.
“We must take control of Gaza until the hostages—the living and the dead—are returned. Later on, there will be elections in Israel and we will decide what to do next,” he said.
IDF Col. (res.) Gabi Siboni, co-founder of the Cyber Security Management Program at Francisco de Vitoria University in Madrid and a research fellow at the Herzliya-based Israel Center for Grand Strategy, told JNS that Israel cannot achieve its war goals through a deal.
“I don’t see how the destruction of Hamas, both from a governance standpoint and a military standpoint, and the release of all of our hostages could be accomplished in a ceasefire,” he said.
“While Israel stops fighting, Hamas continues building its armaments and continues being a threat. None of the ‘Gaza Envelope’ villages will be able to live there safely while Hamas is back on the border,” he continued.
“We can have a ceasefire if Hamas agrees to release all the hostages, put down its weapons and exile its leaders, but I don’t think this will happen,” he added.
Siboni told JNS he expects the IDF unit in charge of redeeming hostages to seek intelligence and develop operational opportunities for rescue operations. He argued that humanitarian assistance should be halted in areas still under Hamas control, and that civilians should be relocated to areas under IDF authority, where they can receive proper shelter and support.
“I don’t see Hamas releasing all the hostages, because they are its life insurance. The only way to move forward is to destroy Hamas; talks are useless,” Siboni said.