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Israel has no choice but to risk open conflict with Trump

History shows that when Jerusalem has folded under American pressure, it has earned contempt, while when it has insisted on its sovereign security needs, it has earned respect. If history is our guide, Israel has no choice but to act independently in the fateful campaign for its future.

Trump Netanyahu
U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., Dec. 29, 2025. Credit: Amos Ben-Gershom/GPO.
Michael B. Oren is an American-Israeli diplomat, writer and politician who served as Israel’s ambassador to the United States from 2009 to 2013.

In my media interviews, I am often asked: “Has Israel become the 51st state of the US?” With half a smile, I answer: “If only. American states have far more freedom and room to maneuver than Israel does.”

This situation is hardly new. Ever since U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower demanded that Israeli Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion halt the Israel Defense Forces’ campaign against Egypt in Sinai in 1956, and later withdraw from Gaza, the United States has consistently forced Israel to stop fighting and agree to a ceasefire.

That was true in the 1967 Six-Day War, which Israel wanted to continue for an eighth day; in the 1973 Yom Kippur War; in both Lebanon wars; and in all our operations in Gaza. Even pro-Israel presidents such as Lyndon B. Johnson, Richard Nixon and George W. Bush threatened severe consequences if Israel ignored their demands to cease fire.

In May 2021, on the eighth day of “Operation Guardian of the Walls” against Hamas, I received a phone call from a senior adviser to U.S. President Joe Biden, who asked me to convey an urgent message to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: “Israel must end the operation tonight, or risk losing American support.” Netanyahu was furious. He wanted to keep fighting for at least three more days. But he immediately complied. The operation ended that evening.

The only difference between U.S. President Donald Trump and previous presidents is his tendency to treat us publicly as vassals who must obey his every order. This is humiliating and demoralizing for Israel and, unfortunately, it strengthens our enemies. But that raises the question: Must Israel obey the White House’s demands under all circumstances and at any price?

Historically, the answer has been “no.” U.S. presidents not only ordered Israel to stop fighting; they also opposed its decision to go to war in the first place. That was the case in every war from the establishment of the state until “Operation Rising Lion” last year. Yet Israel’s leaders, despite the risk of a rift with Washington, determined that our basic security was at stake and decided to act.

Ironically, every time Israel defied the White House and went to war—in 1948, for example, in 1967 and in the 1981 strike on Iraq’s nuclear reactor—we earned America’s respect. Every time we surrendered to pressure and showed restraint—in 1973 and in the 1991 Gulf War—we earned America’s contempt.

This record is especially relevant today, when Hezbollah will undoubtedly violate any ceasefire and continue attacking us. Israel needs to defend and save the north, but in doing so, it risks not only war with Iran but also an open confrontation with President Trump. As in the past, Israel will have no choice but to act.

With its eyes wide open to the potential cost, Israel must show that it is neither a U.S. vassal nor its 51st state, but a sovereign country with an unshakable duty to defend its territory and its citizens. In the end, if history is our guide, Trump will respect us for it.

Originally published inIsrael Hayom.

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