In the aftermath of last Tuesday’s presidential election in the United States, Iran has signaled that it still intends to respond to Israel’s Oct. 26 retaliatory strikes.
“With a strong will, we were able to achieve the 1st and 2nd operations of ‘True promise,’” said senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Ali Fazli on Nov. 7. “True Promise” is the Islamic Republic’s name for its ballistic missile attacks on the Jewish state on April 13 and Oct. 1.
“In ‘True Promise’ 3, the enemy will be given a tooth-breaking response,” Fazli continued. The IRGC deputy chief also stated that Iran “does not rule out a pre-emptive strike by the U.S. and Israel.”
Before the election, Tehran had signaled that it would seek to launch a strike on Israel via its regional proxies, rather than directly. To this end, the Islamic Republic has been transferring drones and ballistic missiles to its proxy forces in Iraq, Axios reported last Tuesday, citing U.S. and Israeli officials.
Israel Defense Forces Col. (ret.) Miri Eisen, a fellow at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, told JNS that this decision on Iran’s part shows weakness.
“Iran right now feels very vulnerable … due to a lack of air defense, so attacking from Iraqi soil is a way of protecting themselves,” she said.
According to Eisen, the decision could also weaken Iran’s relationship with its proxies.
“Every time Iran does not attack from Iranian soil, the proxies notice. Both times that Iran attacked Israel, in April and in October, had to do with Iran having to show that they are willing to attack from Iranian soil,” she continued.
The Iraqi government for its part has denied the reports of imminent attacks on Israel from Iraqi soil, calling them “false pretexts” to justify attacks on Iraq. However, it has very limited control of the parts of eastern Iraq where the militias largely operate.
In a recent report, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) commented that this development is consistent with “the growing importance of Iraq in Iranian strategy in the Middle East, as the IDF has degraded Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah.”
The report further added that, “Iran could place greater emphasis on building their strength in Iraq and Syria to compensate for the losses in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. Iran’s proximity to and over two decades of developing proxy and partner militias in Iraq make it an appealing non-Iranian base of operations for the Axis of Resistance.”
According to ISW the likely relocation of the Hamas leadership to Iraq following their expulsion from Doha, which was announced on Friday, also signals the growing role of the Iraqi militias in Iran’s axis.
Who are the Iraqi militias?
Although the Iraqi militias are in reality a large group of disjointed organizations, their level of cooperation and coordination has greatly increased since the beginning of Israel’s war with Hamas in October of last year. Since Nov. 2, 2023, all major Iran-backed groups have been operating under the new umbrella organization “The Islamic Resistance in Iraq.”
“The money comes from Iran, the ideology comes from Iran, the capabilities come from Iran and most of the trainers come from Hezbollah,” Eisen told JNS. “The Iraqi militias are not viable without Iran. They would not have the training or the capabilities. And it’s not just Iran, they also need Hezbollah, and the [IRGC] Quds Force.”
According to the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center (MAITIC), the IRI has claimed responsibility for 242 attacks against 285 targets in Israel since its formation. The vast majority of those attacks have targeted sites in Eilat, the Golan Heights and Haifa. According to MAITIC, “Drones launched from Iraq have caused the deaths of two IDF soldiers, injuries to several soldiers and civilians, and property damage. However, the vast majority of the launches did not penetrate Israeli territory.”
The newly emerging central role of the IRI in the Iranian axis can also be seen in the sharp increase in the size and scope of its attacks on Israel since the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. At the beginning of the war, the IRI largely split its attention between Israel and U.S. targets in Syria and Iraq. The first official attack carried out by the IRI was a drone attack on the Harir Air Base in northern Iraq, where U.S. forces are deployed. According to Eisen, one of the central purposes of the Iraqi militias was to give Iran “depth to attacks against U.S. capabilities.” Recently, however, the IRI has shifted to almost exclusively targeting Israeli assets.
The exact structure of the IRI is not entirely clear. According to the U.S. State Department, the four central militias comprising the IRI are Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya (HAAA), Kata’ib Hezbollah, the Nujaba Movement and Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada. However, other smaller militias are also almost certainly involved, including the Badr Organization and the al-Imam Ali Brigades.
According to MAITIC, the militias are still largely operating on an autonomous level, however there is some coordination through the Iraqi Resistance Coordination Headquarters (IRCH), which allows for some collaboration and is a channel for orders from Tehran.
According to experts, the capabilities of the IRI militias can pose a serious threat to Israel’s security. Their manpower is gauged at between 40,000-80,000 fighters. However, the true threat to Israel lies in the IRI’s impressive long-range arsenal.
“The military capabilities of the Iraqi militias are similar to those of the Houthis,” said Eisen. “Mainly UAVs and missiles that come from Iran to attack Israel. Most of the capabilities that they have are in single numbers, meaning they can fire four UAVs or 10 UAVs but not large barrages,” she added.
According to MAITIC, the IRI arsenal includes the Murad 5 (Shahed-101), Shahed-131 and Al-Arfad long-range drones, as well as the Al-Arqab cruise missile, which is a parallel of the Houthis’ Quds missile. The capabilities of IRI are only expected to grow as they take a more central role in Iran’s “axis of resistance.”
