Israel could become home to the majority of the world’s Jews within the next decade, according to a report on global Jewish demographics, one of the key findings of a sweeping study on the future of Jewish communities over the next century.
“If there is still a world in 2126, there will be a Jewish People,” wrote Professor Sergio DellaPergola in a report published by the London-based Institute for Jewish Policy Research. “It will be a Jewish People very different from the current one, in a world even more unrecognisable than the one we live in today.”
DellaPergola is professor emeritus and former chairman of the Hebrew University’s Harman Research Institute of Contemporary Jewry.
The world’s Jewish population currently stands at around 15.8 million—smaller than the population of the Netherlands—yet, according to the report, subject to an “exorbitant” level of global attention. Nearly half live in Israel. At current growth rates, DellaPergola projects that Israel could cross the symbolic threshold of hosting the majority of the world’s Jews as early as 2035, a demographic milestone he called “epochal.”
That shift reflects a marked divergence in birth rates. According to the report, Jewish communities across the United States and Europe are ageing and shrinking. Intermarriage in the United States has risen from negligible levels a century ago to over 60% by 2020, which the report links to a weakening of intergenerational transmission of Jewish identity. Israel, meanwhile, remains a demographic outlier among developed nations. Even in secular Tel Aviv, families average more children than anywhere in Europe.
Much of that growth is being driven by Israel’s Orthodox communities. Currently around 15% of Israeli Jews, Haredi/ultra-Orthodox families average six to seven children, compared to just over two among secular Israelis. The report projects the Haredi share of the population could double to 30% by 2050. DellaPergola highlights the economic and security implications of this trend, noting that Haredi men participate in Israel’s workforce and military at significantly lower rates than other citizens, a gap that could pose long-term fiscal challenges.
Beyond long-term fertility trends, the report examines recent migration patterns reshaping Israel and the Diaspora. Since the Hamas-led attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has recorded a rare negative migration balance—more people leaving than arriving. At the same time, rising antisemitism is prompting Jews in Europe and North America to consider relocation to Israel. The result, DellaPergola writes, is a tension between opposing pressures: “a strong desire to leave, but without being able to truly decide where.”
On antisemitism, the report argues the threat has evolved rather than diminished. Outright violence remains a concern, but is increasingly accompanied by social exclusion, intimidation and broader challenges to the legitimacy of Jewish identity and the State of Israel.
Institute for Jewish Policy Research Executive Director Jonathan Boyd described the report as a corrective to short-term thinking. “There’s a tendency in Jewish communal life to focus on the crisis of the day,” he said. “But if you base your understanding of the future on short-term shocks, you risk missing the bigger picture entirely.”
