Israel has entered a new phase: the phase of determined defense that must follow the war that began with the Hamas massacre on Oct. 7, 2023.
Its two immediate fronts remain Hezbollah and Hamas, the two largest Iranian proxy terrorist organizations—one Shi’ite, the other Sunni—which have transformed Lebanon and Gaza into fortified terror strongholds.
If a ceasefire is signed, Lebanon too will again become central to the equation. Israel’s concern is that any agreement could become a form of protection for Hezbollah rather than a mechanism to restrain it.
To signal that it will not accept such a reality, Israel on Wednesday struck Shuwayfat, a district south of Beirut, for the first time in three weeks, after the ceasefire had been renewed despite repeated Hezbollah attacks that killed 12 Israeli soldiers, destroyed homes and forced the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of Israelis.
The target was Ali al-Husni, head of the missile forces of Hezbollah’s Imam Hossein Division, whose fate remains unclear.
The return to strikes near Beirut signals that it is far from certain that the government of Lebanese President Joseph Aoun will find the strength to disarm Hezbollah, despite pressure and expectations from President Donald Trump. Lebanon itself can no longer afford Hezbollah’s domination, yet the militia remains deeply entrenched.
At the same time, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled Israel’s urgency regarding Hamas’s disarmament. He stated that the territory in Gaza secured by the Israel Defense Forces—currently approximately 60%—could expand to 78%.
For Israel, Hamas cannot be considered a closed chapter as long as it continues to dominate Gaza as a base for permanent terrorist warfare.
Just days ago, Israeli forces eliminated Mohammed Ouda, Hamas’s newly appointed military commander and one of the architects of the Oct. 7 massacre.
Hamas continues to reject any governing structure outside its control and repeats daily its determination to destroy Israel. Wherever the IDF withdraws, Hamas quickly reasserts itself, seizing buildings and aid supplies, stockpiling weapons and reactivating terror tunnels. Only on Tuesday, the IDF announced the destruction of 11 kilometers of underground tunnel infrastructure.
Israel is therefore already looking toward the future while adjusting itself strategically to the regional reality emerging from the war.
For several days—and particularly on Wednesday—Trump spoke of concluding an agreement with Iran, presenting it above all as an undeclared defeat of Tehran.
The Strait of Hormuz issue affects Israel only indirectly, but the broader regional realignment now taking shape could reshape Israel’s relations with neighboring Arab states.
Trump has declared that the Abraham Accords will expand in the aftermath of the war, particularly through the possible inclusion of Saudi Arabia.
Israel views that future as strategically transformative, which is one reason its alliance with Trump is more vital than ever.
At the same time, Israel remains focused on another fundamental issue: eliminating Iran’s ability to build a nuclear weapon and ensuring that enriched uranium is removed from the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Trump has repeated that commitment several times.
Meanwhile, difficult discussions continue over Lebanon between Israeli Ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter and Lebanon’s representative at the United Nations in New York. Attention now turns to whether Trump will finally persuade Aoun to hold the long-discussed direct conversation with Netanyahu that has repeatedly been postponed.
Israel is also asking difficult questions about Iran’s remaining ballistic-missile stockpiles, an issue that has largely disappeared from international discussion in recent weeks.
And in the background looms another concern: the enormous sums of money that could once again flow into the hands of the ayatollahs if a broader agreement is finalized.
For many Israelis, one conviction remains deeply rooted: No agreement, however ambitious, will permanently extinguish Iran’s drive for regional domination and violence.
