According to sources in Lebanon, Hezbollah is currently governed by a temporary “collective leadership” following the assassination by Israel of its leader Hassan Nasrallah. The organization has yet to choose a successor, as the leadership is wary of further Israeli attacks.
Iran is expected to play a major role in selecting the next leader, but Iran’s adviser in Beirut, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghaani, has been missing since Israel’s attack on Hezbollah’s Dahiya stronghold south of Beirut on Oct. 4. The Israeli strike was directed against Hezbollah official Hashem Safieddin, a potential successor to Nasrallah. Iran claims that Ghaani is safe and well.
The timing of the election for a new Hezbollah secretary-general remains uncertain, with the terror group’s top figures reluctant to assume the position due to the risk of being targeted by Israel.
Hezbollah in shock
Sources report that Hezbollah remains deeply shaken by the assassination of Nasrallah and his senior military commanders.
Compounding this are continued Israeli strikes, including the attempt to eliminate Safieddin, the head of Hezbollah’s Executive Council and a relative of Nasrallah.
While Israeli intelligence suggests Safieddin was killed, neither Israel nor Hezbollah have officially confirmed his death.
Fleeing to Yemen?
Sources in Yemen report that senior Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon and Syria are contemplating relocating to Yemen to join the Houthis, fearing that staying in Lebanon leaves them vulnerable to Israeli attack.
These officials believe the Israel Defense Forces will continue targeting them as part of its broader effort to dismantle Hezbollah’s military infrastructure.
Resistance to assuming leadership positions
Ebrahim al-Sayed, head of Hezbollah’s Political Council and considered the third-ranking official within the organization, has refused the position of secretary-general. He reportedly fears for his life and has expressed a desire to pursue religious studies in Iran instead.
The newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat reported on Oct. 6 that Hezbollah has decided to delay the appointment of a new secretary-general, opting instead for the current “collective leadership” structure due to ongoing Israeli assassinations of its senior members.
Israel’s ongoing campaign
Israel continues to target Hezbollah’s leaders, military commanders and arsenal, while simultaneously conducting ground operations in southern Lebanon aimed at destroying the group’s infrastructure near the Israeli border.
Israeli success is attributed to precise intelligence and deep infiltration into Hezbollah’s upper ranks.
A leadership void
Hezbollah is struggling to fill the leadership void left by Nasrallah’s death. According to Lebanese political sources, the group is currently being led by an “advisory council,” likely comprising members of Hezbollah’s Shura Council.
This supreme council oversees five key bodies: the Executive Council, Legal Council, Parliamentary Council, Political Council and Jihad Council.
The Shura Council members include:
• Sheikh Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s deputy secretary general.
• Mohammed Ra’ad, head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary faction.
• Mohammed Yazbek, head of the Sharia Council.
• Hussein Khalil, who served as Nasrallah’s political adviser.
Senior Israeli security officials believe these leaders are also at risk of assassination.
Iran’s influence and future changes
The terror group’s current leadership structure is expected to remain in place until its Central Council can elect a new secretary-general.
Iran plays a significant role in determining who this will be, but the question remains as to who will survive the wave of Israeli assassinations.
According to Israeli security sources, the Iranian leadership is frustrated with Hezbollah’s conduct in the ongoing conflict with Israel, an in particular the extent of Israeli intelligence infiltration.
Tehran is reportedly planning major changes in Hezbollah’s leadership when the time is right.
Originally published by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.