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Aviram Bellaishe. Credit: Courtesy.

Aviram Bellaishe

Aviram Bellaishe is vice president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs. A leading expert in regional geopolitics, Middle Eastern affairs and Arabic language and culture, he served for 27 years in Israel’s security apparatus.

Four stages of pressure, and why only the final one, creating a credible path to defection, determines whether a regime falls.
The ideological alliance combining progressive movements with anti-Zionist ideas means climate activists can demonstrate alongside Hamas flags without seeing any contradiction.
Even if a state is recognized, it will not function as a state. It will be both a terror state and an institutionally failed state that will soon become a plaything of external or internal forces.
Tehran understands that it must avert an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities, which the incoming U.S. administration may allow.
The supreme leader may well regret moving from the proxy method to direct warfare against Israel.
Only at the brink of defeat will Hamas call for a hudna—a tactical move in the jihadist war, aimed at allowing it to regroup and rearm.
Disrupting Iran’s oil tankers will disrupt Iran’s economy and hence Iran’s proxies.