These days, the eyes of the world are on Saudi Arabia, trying to discern whether the kingdom is truly moving toward normalization with Israel. Before the Hamas-led terrorist attacks in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, normalization with Saudi Arabia was the most talked-about topic in the Middle East and the United States. However, after Hamas’s brutal and inhumane attack, the issue of normalization was sidelined.
Now, with a familiar face back in the White House making moves that just a year ago would have seemed impossible, the conversation around normalization is returning. While it’s hard to predict what will happen with Saudi Arabia, especially with President Donald Trump once again shaping global dynamics, developments with other countries appear to be taking shape.
Two Muslim-majority nations, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, are emerging as strong candidates to join the Abraham Accords and formally normalize relations with Israel. Unlike the countries that initially signed the accords, these two already maintain open and active relations with Israel. Kazakhstan has long benefited from its relationship with Israel, receiving agricultural and medical technologies, desalination facilities and weaponry. Azerbaijan enjoys similar benefits and maintains particularly close ties with Israel, including collaboration in sectors such as communications and defense.
Both of these nations also provide Israel with critical energy resources, including significant quantities of gas and oil. For Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, joining the Abraham Accords presents a strategic opportunity to reshape their geopolitical standing.
First, normalization would expand their cooperation with Israel and likely increase their energy revenues. Moreover, both countries would likely gain access to additional technological innovations not only from Israel but also from the United States, which plays a crucial role in the Abraham Accords framework.
This brings us to a second major benefit. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan operate in a highly complex regional environment: Central Asia. Azerbaijan shares borders with both Iran and Russia—two staunchly anti-Western powers that strongly oppose their neighbors’ ties with what they see as the “Great Satan.” While Kazakhstan doesn’t border Iran, it still feels its influence, and it shares borders with Russia and China—another major adversary of the West.
Essentially, these three countries—China, Iran and Russia—dominate Central Asia and control much of the trade routes between East and West. In this challenging landscape, Central Asian countries often adopt a “multi-vector” foreign policy, seeking balanced relations with several global powers without committing exclusively to any one of them.
If Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan were to sign the Abraham Accords and deepen cooperation with the United States, they could gain a significant edge over other countries in the region, bolstering their positions vis-à-vis China, Russia and Iran. Such a move could dramatically transform the region.
The Abraham Accords wouldn’t only affect high-level diplomacy; it could also impact daily life in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. In recent years, the Islamic Republic of Iran has actively worked against Azerbaijan—arming extremist groups, supporting Armenia in its conflict with Azerbaijan, sending spies to Baku, and even orchestrating terror plots against Jews in the country. By signing the Abraham Accords and strengthening its ties with the West, Azerbaijan could deter Iran, fearing potential United States retaliation.
From the American perspective, Azerbaijan’s inclusion in the Abraham Accords would provide Washington and the Gulf states with a valuable ally neighboring Iran, one with cultural and ethnic ties to Iran’s largest minority population, the Azeris, who reside mostly in northwestern Iran.
Kazakhstan, for its part, is keen to diversify its trade partnerships. Relying heavily on Russia, which is under heavy global sanctions, and China, which is in the midst of a trade war with the United States, creates uncertainty and risk. By partnering with the United States, Kazakhstan could export its natural resources to the West via the “Middle Corridor,” a trade route designed to bypass Russia and Iran, and which includes Azerbaijan. If Kazakhstan signs the Abraham Accords, it would be a win-win: Kazakhstan benefits, Europe gains an alternative energy source to Russian oil, Israel gains recognition from another Muslim country and the United States secures access to critical minerals from a source other than China.
Another key aspect of this potential shift is how the rest of the Turkic-speaking nations in Central Asia might react. In 2023, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan began working to establish and strengthen a coalition of Turkic states based on shared language, history and culture. This coalition plans to cooperate across military, scientific, informational, cultural and economic fields, and includes all Turkic nations from Turkey to Kyrgyzstan.
If Azerbaijan, one of the strongest of the Turkic countries, and Kazakhstan, the largest and wealthiest, join forces in such a transformative diplomatic move, it’s likely the rest of the Turkic nations will follow. Collaboration between this coalition and Israel could significantly bolster Israel’s standing in the Muslim world. From a global trade perspective, the potential is immense when so many neighboring nations begin coordinating and cooperating with the West.
All that remains is to hope this crucial diplomatic initiative comes to fruition. If there’s ever been a deal in which no party stands to lose, this is it. Israel, the United States, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan must not let this opportunity slip away.