We awoke this week to the news that Iran has unveiled a new ballistic-missile system, the Qassem Basir, which the Iranians claim has a range of 1,300 kilometers, and can bypass the U.S. THAAD missile and Arrow Defense missile programs. Iran can use the Shi’ite communities within Iraq and Jordan to attack American or Israeli bases.
Aziz Nasirzadeh, Iran’s defense minister, said that he had “no problem” with his Mideast neighbors, stressing that “they are our brothers.” But, he added, “American bases are our targets.”
This comes the day after the Houthis launched a missile that got through Israeli air defenses in the area around Ben-Gurion International Airport. The Houthis have vowed to do this again and again, potentially cutting off all air transport to the State of Israel.
Since Oct. 7, 2023, Iran has been in a much more compromised position than it had been and might be desperate for something to revitalize its failing image in the region. Iran’s “ring of fire,” its development of its multilateral war utilizing its terrorist proxies, has not entirely withered on the vine, although the lion’s share of thanks should go to the many operational successes of the state of Israel and the courageous men and women of the IDF and their reserve forces, that continuously put their lives on hold to serve their country.
Iran had failed to protect its greatest asset, the former Syrian dictator Bashar Assad. Thousands of Iranian-backed resistance fighters have perished in Syria. Although Assad’s domination has withered, Syria’s controlling government, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, might yet constitute a further grave threat to Israel because of the character of its leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, and his deeply entrenched Al-Qaeda and ISIS roots. He also has profited from the backing of the highly antisemitic backing of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, a strong advocate of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Erdoğan has gone so far as to compare Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler. There is a concern that Erdoğan would like to replace the borders of Turkey with the former borders of the Ottoman Empire. Assad’s fall to al-Sharaa has opened the Syrian territory to become a Mideastern ally of Turkey, which is now building up a dependency with Ankara and a Turkish presence, as well as semi-sovereignty within Syria.
Erdoğan has called Jerusalem “a red line for Muslims.” In front of a convention of the Justice and Development Party last December, the AKP delegates shouted in unison, “Jerusalem is ours, and shall remain so.” Erdoğan responded in Arabic with Inshallah. Inshallah (“God willing”). “We will not leave Jerusalem to a child-killer country.”
Meanwhile, these are tough times for Hezbollah. Thanks to Israel’s devastating “beeper” and “pager” operation last September, much of its leadership has been maimed or killed. Supply chains through Syria to Lebanon have been cut off, and much of it has retreated from Southern Lebanon. Many Hezbollah units have retreated north of the Litani River, in accordance with the 2006 U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701.
Yet as Lt. Col (Res.) Sarit Zehavi said last week at the JNS International Policy Conference in Jerusalem, Israel must maintain a presence in both Lebanon and Syria to prevent the further building up of Hezbollah and from armaments from flowing into their hands.
Although four successive administrations have declared that “Iran must never get a bomb on my watch,” the most distressing aspect of all this is that Iran has never ceased work on its nuclear-enrichment program. Iran now, according to the last report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), possesses 274.8 kilograms (605.8 pounds) of highly enriched uranium at a level of 60%. They are well on their way to getting to the 90% level necessary for a bomb.
Some experts have estimated that they now have enough highly enriched uranium for 17 bombs.
The snapback sanctions of U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, which is the foundational basis for the entire JCPOA, have yet to be triggered. They will expire in October 2025. France, Germany and Great Britain (“the E3”) still maintain the status to trigger the snapback sanctions but have been reluctant to do so.
Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, says its nuclear enrichment is “for peaceful purposes only.” If that were the case, it would only need 3% to 5% for peaceful purposes.
Yet the talks drag on, and Iran has a new ballistic-missile program. Why are we letting the world pull the wool over our eyes?