One analyst compared U.S. President Donald Trump’s negotiating prowess to the “Peanuts” comic-strip character Charlie Brown repeatedly trying to kick a football, only to have Lucy pull it away. We’ve seen this hapless pattern in negotiations with North Korea, China, Russia, and now Iran. But when it comes to Iran, the stakes are exponentially higher—nothing short of existential for Israel and deeply consequential for U.S. national security.
While the outcome of Trump’s current negotiations with Iran remains unclear, his administration’s mixed messaging and apparent eagerness for a deal have set off alarm bells from Jerusalem to Capitol Hill, where 52 Republican senators and 177 Republicans representatives urged Trump to “reinforce the explicit warnings that you and officials in your administration have issued that the [Iranian] regime must permanently give up any capacity for enrichment.”
The Iranians have been taking advantage of foreigners in the bazaar since the days of the Persian Empire. Former President Barack Obama was completely out of his depth, which is why the Iranians saw his desperation for a deal and unwillingness to use force as a weakness they exploited.
Recall that Obama started with the right ideas but then capitulated on every key point when the Iranians balked. Let’s review some of the reasons the original agreement was a failure:
• Iranian hostility toward the United States never abated.
• Iran was allowed to maintain enrichment capabilities.
• Iran prevented “anywhere, anytime” inspections, making verification impossible.
• Iran withheld information about its prior nuclear activities.
• Iran’s ballistic-missile development and sponsorship of terror were unaddressed.
• Iran continued to pursue a bomb while claiming otherwise.
• Iran has declared its intention to continue these activities.
Just as the Iranians recognized that Obama would never use military force against them, they see Trump’s desperation to avoid war. The president’s supporters might not remember, but the Iranians surely recall how he blustered about raining hell on them if they attacked American bases with ballistic missiles and then did nothing when they did just that. The “maximum pressure” campaign, which relied on economic sanctions, failed, leaving Iran closer to a bomb than when Trump took office. Now it has the uranium to build multiple bombs.
The Iranians smell desperation because of Trump’s newfound desire to be the emissary of world peace and because his negotiators can’t get their stories straight. First, U.S. special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff talked about accepting Iranian enrichment at the levels of the original agreement and then, after a backlash from those with a modicum of common sense, retreated and declared “an enrichment program can never exist in the state of Iran ever again.”
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, formerly a hardliner on Iran, said the administration was prepared to allow Iran to have a civil nuclear program that relies exclusively on imported nuclear fuel. Sounding like Obama, he said that Iran could keep operating nuclear reactors, but its pathway to a bomb would be blocked. This was after then-National Security Advisor Mike Waltz had insisted that Tehran agree to the “full dismantlement” of its nuclear program.
Meanwhile, Trump talked about being close to a deal while he was in Qatar, another instance of being bamboozled by the emir. The president said, “Iran is very lucky to have the emir because he’s actually fighting for them. He doesn’t want us to do a vicious blow to Iran.”
As long as Tehran believes Trump can be suckered, the Iranians will drag out negotiations and try to drain concessions from the administration, as they did with Obama and Biden. The latter was desperate for a deal but ultimately recognized that the Iranians would never accept any limits to their nuclear ambitions and gave up trying. Biden’s problem was that he was unwilling to take the necessary military action to ensure that the Iranians could not build a bomb, and he prevented Israel from doing what was required. Trump appears ready to make the same mistakes.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made clear that Iran will not agree to dismantle its centrifuges, restrict enrichment below 3.67% or abandon its ballistic-missile program. The Trump team isn’t even talking about the missile program or Iran’s sponsorship of terror—two key elements to neutralizing the threat. Trump has also disavowed regime change, which is the only way the people of Iran and the region can feel safe. Public comments by Iranian officials indicate that they are prepared to call Trump’s bluff.
The most important statement, largely ignored, came from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who concisely explained why negotiating with Iran is different. Trump “thinks he can come here, chant slogans and scare us. For us, martyrdom is far sweeter than dying in bed. You came to frighten us? We will not bow to any bully.”
What sets Iran apart from every other nuclear-armed nation—or those seeking the bomb—is its disbelief in mutual assured destruction. Iranian leaders openly embrace martyrdom. And that’s what terrifies Israelis—and what should alarm the entire world.
Former Iranian President Ali Rafsanjani declared, “Israel is much smaller than Iran in land mass, and therefore far more vulnerable to nuclear attack.” Similarly, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said that if Iran gets nuclear weapons, nothing would be left of Israel, but a bomb would “just produce damages in the Muslim world.”
The Iranians believe that a nuclear war is a win-win situation for them. They say the population of Iran is 90 million compared to Israel’s 10 million, and its land mass is nearly 60 times the size of Israel. If Iran can land just three nuclear missiles in Israel—hitting Haifa, Jerusalem and Tel Aviv—then it’s goodbye Israel. If Israel can counterstrike, the Iranian leaders believe that they will go to Paradise with 72 virgins, or that an apocalypse will bring about the return of the Twelfth Imam and a new era in which Islam becomes the world’s dominant religion.
Khamenei offered a reminder that Iran’s martyrology applies beyond Israel when he said: “We will stand against the whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all of them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom, which is martyrdom.”
Westerners don’t understand the martyrdom mentality. It’s why they don’t recognize the global threat posed by Iran and other jihadis.
This isn’t another business transaction for Trump to conclude; it’s a confrontation with a theocratic regime that sees nuclear weapons as Divine instruments of victory. He may yet be saved by Iranian obstinance, as they announced their withdrawal from negotiations.
Iran has not slowed its enrichment since talks began. If Trump presses on without taking the necessary military action, then he will repeat the same blunder as Obama—bargaining with a regime that has no intention of compromise and every intention of outlasting American resolve, which may expire with Trump’s presidency. That would be an example of doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results.
Insanity.