One thing is clear from this past week in the Middle East: U.S. President Donald Trump is using America’s economic might as the engine of his foreign policy. While many presidents have grown accustomed to the use of economic sanctions to punish and correct the behavior of certain regimes, Trump is taking this concept one step further. A few weeks into his return to the Oval Office, Trump imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran targeting their oil exports, including the revocation of all existing sanctions waivers. This was a sharp contrast to the sanctions relief that Iran enjoyed under former President Joe Biden.
Then, on April 2, what he called “Liberation Day,” the president announced sweeping tariffs on goods being imported into the United States. While many of the tariffs were put into place to correct trade imbalances, it was another opportunity for Trump to demonstrate that he will leverage America’s buying power as part of his foreign policy. The theory seems to be that America can use not only its military might, but also its economic power to change the behavior of foreign nations.
Following a four-day tour of the Middle East, Trump unveiled economic agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. He also lifted U.S. sanctions on Syria and delivered a clear ultimatum to Iran: Agree to a nuclear deal and open trade with the United States or face crushing sanctions and potential military action.
Will it work? Only time will tell. But one thing is for sure: The stakes could not be higher, as the United States is dealing with some of the world’s worst actors. Many were outraged to see the president sitting across from figures like Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani), and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani. But as former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzchak Rabin once said when defending his negotiations with the PLO in the 1990s, “You don’t make peace with your friends. You make it with very unsavory enemies.” Yet what many fear is what happened to Rabin—that instead of peace, the Oslo Accords ushered in only bloodshed and deepened divisions. Will the same happen here?
Many people were up in arms when they saw Trump landing in Qatar, being open to accepting lavish gifts from the Qataris, and speaking of them as partners and friends. While it’s clear that the president was there to make deals in the interest of the American people and their allies, it cannot be ignored that Qatar is no friend to the West. Qatar has historically been one of the largest funders of the Muslim Brotherhood, is one of the main foreign backers of Hamas, funds and controls the Al Jazeera news outlet, which promotes a rabid anti-Israel and anti-American agenda, and has poured billions into our American university system. Qatar is both arsonist and firefighter, acting as the key mediator between Israel and Hamas, and, apparently, playing a big role in securing the release of Edan Alexander, which happened just before the president landed in Doha. Watching Qatar suddenly transform on the world stage into a supposed partner is difficult to swallow.
Jaws dropped when Trump then met with al-Sharaa, Syria’s new leader, who just a few years ago was a member of Al-Qaeda, who then founded the al-Nusra Front and rebranded as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, toppling former Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and proceeding to massacre Christians, Alawites and Druze around Syria. After their meeting, Trump surprised the world by lifting sanctions on Syria and granting that country a “fresh start.”
The key questions surrounding the president’s recent moves are: Did Trump secure meaningful concessions from these nations as part of the new deals? So far, that question remains largely unanswered. The second is whether behaviors in the region change as a result of this realignment with the United States.
If the answer to both is yes, then Trump’s bold strategy will have proven successful. For example, if Qatar announces in the coming days that it will stop funding Hamas and takes real steps to pressure Hamas to release the hostages, the world will applaud Trump’s innovative foreign policy. Likewise, if Syria begins pursuing security cooperation or even peace with Israel, it will represent an incredibly significant and positive shift in the region. The outcome remains to be seen.
Of course, there is still Iran, the sworn enemy of the United States and Israel. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, has just made an offer to Iran regarding its nuclear program. The details of the offer are hazy, leaving observers reading tea leaves. But Trump is sticking with his peace through (economic and military) strength strategy and has even put out a proverbial carrot for Iran. “Iran wants to trade with us, OK? If you can believe that I’m OK with that. I’m using trade to settle scores and to make peace.”
This is a bridge too far, as Iran will never be a partner of any kind with the United States so long as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is still controlling the Islamic Republic. Trump knows this. He also knows that Iran has proven time and time again that it is not to be trusted. It seems the true audience for his comments about trade with Iran is not Tehran, but the broader international community with whom he is negotiating economic deals. But, in reality, it is in Iran’s best interest to agree to absolutely anything now, survive Trump’s term and wait until there is a Democrat administration back in the White House so they can finally get their coveted nuclear weapon.
The Trump administration must not forget this. Iran cannot be permitted to enrich any uranium under any circumstances. Its nuclear program must be entirely dismantled. And, despite Trump’s strong preference for diplomacy, the truth remains: Iran’s nuclear capabilities can only be eliminated through military action.
So, how should the president’s strategy be understood? He is placing a big bet that America’s economic power, applied alongside strong sanctions and a bolstered military, can accomplish what previous strategies have failed to. This is not business as usual. The president is using American markets as an incentive for these foreign actors to realign their behavior in line with U.S. interests, using American economic power as both the carrot and the stick. It is without question a high-risk, high-reward approach to foreign policy.
If these moves result in tangible shifts in the short term, then Trump will have redrawn the map of the Middle East through economic deals, rather than sanctions and war. If, however, the Syrians, Qataris and Iranians act as they have in the past, then Trump will have to move quickly and dramatically shift policy strategies. America cannot provide political legitimacy and economic relationships with countries that sow discord around the world, fund our enemies and overrun our education system. As such, the ball appears to be in their court. The United Arab Emirates, late last week, called for the release of all of the hostages. What will this week bring?