After two weeks of spectacular military operations in Lebanon, including feats taken straight from a spy-thriller film, Israel finally took out the most powerful terrorist in the world: Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.
Israel’s repeated strikes and operations against the Shia terror group have demonstrated that its decision-makers have decided to shift gears and are willing to take calculated risks to change the geopolitical balance of power. For the first time, there is a sense that Israel is willing to go all the way for a decisive victory, leaving no stone unturned rather than kicking the Hezbollah can down the road for the next generations of Israelis to deal with.
Israel is at a crossroads, and it has found a golden opportunity to finish off Hezbollah, potentially changing the fabric of Lebanon and the Iranian entrenchment on its northern borders from Lebanon and Syria.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden, now a lame duck, has much weaker leverage over Israel in attempting to hamstring the Jewish state from dominating the escalator ladder. The United States is fully immersed in its election cycle, and the White House has signaled that it is not too keen to divert attention and resources to another Middle East crisis that it needs to “contain.”
For its part, however, Iran is making strides in its attempts to assuage the West and get a new nuclear deal as reiterated by the new Iranian president. Iran cannot afford to get directly involved in a conflict with Israel right now when it needs the West. According to reports, Iran declined to directly attack Israel and protect its proxy to the chagrin of Hezbollah. After strikes on Beirut’s Dahya neighborhood, Hezbollah’s infamous stronghold, former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander and Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi said in an interview on national TV that every leader is replaceable, hinting that they have a successor to Nasrallah. Iran’s allies see it as abandoning them in the money time.
Israel now has the opportunity to further the wedge between Iran and its strongest proxy, Hezbollah. With continued attacks against Hezbollah, Iran could either allow Israel to finish off Hezbollah saving a potential nuclear deal, or it could get involved and “kiss goodbye” a lucrative nuclear deal that would fill the Islamic Republic’s coffers. Neither choice would benefit Iran.
Moreover, a weakened Hezbollah, coupled with the ecstatic swathes of the Syrian and Lebanese factions who openly celebrated Nasrallah’s demise, could be pushed and assisted into weakening Iran’s iron grip over these countries. Once a critical mass of anti-Hezbollah forces coalesces at a time when the Shia terror group is overwhelmed, a social tipping point could be reached changing the balance of power against Iran for the next decades.
Cutting off the largest tentacle of the Iranian octopus could also have a trickle-down effect on other proxies and restore Israel’s lost deterrence. Following the news of Nasrallah’s elimination, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was moved to a secure location fearing another Israeli attack.
This momentum must continue so Israel will be able to have its own internally displaced persons return to their homes. It would prove to Israelis and the jihadists that Israel will achieve its other war aims, just like it achieved the restoration of the north.
This is the way to end the war, maintain an air of victory and change the narrative that Israel’s enemies tell themselves about the Jewish state’s vulnerability.