As a decade of Likud government under Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu comes to a close, Israel’s presence in Judea and Samaria has become an unassailed fact. There is not only a broad consensus about it within Israeli society, it is also being recognized internationally, such as the recent American acknowledgement of the settlement enterprise.
Even the Arab world is starting to show signs of willingness to make peace with Israel without preconditioning a deal on the establishment of a Palestinian state, and it appears that plenty of Palestinians are starting to realize that their dream of a sovereign state is becoming unrealistic.
The Palestinian national movement is at a historic low point, whereas Israel is at a clear advantage and is holding the cards when it comes to shaping the future of the region in which we live. These conditions are much like those that existed when Yitzhak Shamir was prime minister.
Shamir’s time in office is primarily remembered for the enormous aliyah from the former Soviet Union, followed by that from Ethiopia—both of which fundamentally changed the face of Israel and made a major contribution to strengthening the state. But Shamir saw his greatest achievement as “protecting the Land of Israel.” After he left the Prime Minister’s Office following Yitzhak Rabin’s victory in the 1992 election, Shamir was quoted as saying, “I didn’t withdraw from an inch of the Land of Israel.”
Shamir came under criticism from the right on many occasions, and this, as well as the divisions in the right-wing camp, eventually led to his downfall. But when Shamir left the Prime Minister’s Office, Israel was in an advantageous position when it came to the Palestinian movement. The Israeli settlement enterprise in Judea and Samaria, and in the Gaza Strip at the time became an established fact, whereas the Palestinians’ determination to confront Israel weakened significantly.
The Rabin government decided to try to take advantage of the PLO’s weakness to make it into a convenient partner for Israel. The Oslo Accords of 1993 brought the PLO back to life and gave it a hold on Judea, Samaria, and Gaza, as well as breathing life into the vision of two states for two peoples to which Israel and the international community were committed at the time.
This is the reality that Netanyahu inherited when he first became prime minister in 1996 and when he was elected prime minister for the second time in 2009. But a decade later, the reality on the ground is completely different, and to a large extent Israel is back where it was at the end of Shamir’s term. Today, only a few, even among the Palestinians, believe that the two-state solution is realistic, and Israel has the upper hand as it faces a split Palestinian leadership that lacks legitimacy both at home and abroad.
Under Shamir and under Netanyahu, a lot of the credit for the Palestinians’ downfall goes to the Palestinian leadership itself. The collapse of the dream of a Palestinian state is the result of the Palestinians’ failure to run their own affairs, whether under the P.A. or under Hamas. Radicalism, a pull towards violence and rampant corruption combined as a recipe for failure.
But this reality is first and foremost the result of the policy that Shamir led and Netanyahu is leading now—a policy that creating facts on the ground that will be difficult to change. We are seeing history come full-circle.
This article first appeared in Israel Hayom.