For the first time in nearly 18 years, a majority of Israeli Jews oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state in any form, according to an opinion poll published on Monday.
Of the 804 Jews polled in the “Swords of Iron Survey Results—December 2024” survey by Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), 64% opposed the creation of a Palestinian state “under any condition,” compared to 23% who said they supported it “under certain conditions.” The remaining 13% said they didn’t know. Among the 205 Arab Israelis polled, the distribution was 12%, 59% and 29%, respectively.
Within the total sample of 1,009 Jewish and Arab respondents, 54% opposed the creation of any Palestinian state compared to 30% who supported it.
Respondents were polled on a host of issues, including their degree of trust in various institutions. Among Jews, 85% indicated “great confidence” in the Israel Defense Forces, versus 34% among Arabs.
Confidence in the government remained stable at 25% among the Jewish public and 9% among Arabs. Confidence in the government was at 27% in an INSS poll from December 2022.
The degree of confidence in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also stayed steady, INSS wrote, with 33% among the Jewish public and 8% among Arabs backing him.
Asked whether the terms of the ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon create conditions for a return of evacuees to Israel’s north, 48.5% of Jews said no, compared to 38% who said yes. Still, 50% of Jews supported the ceasefire compared to 27% who opposed it. The remaining 23% said they were neutral or did not know.
Regarding the war with Hamas, 60% of Jews said its objectives would be achieved either in full (12%) or to a large degree. Also among Jews, 34% were more pessimistic, predicting none or very few of the objectives would be met. Arab respondents were even more skeptical, with 22% predicting total or meaningful achievements for Israel and 52% expecting no or few achievements.
Among the Jewish respondents, 39% supported Israeli annexation of the Gaza Strip, and out of those respondents, more than half indicated that they favored the reestablishment of Israeli communities there. Just over half of Jews favored transferring Gaza to the control of either a Palestinian “moderate party” or a regional or international entity. A 10th of Jews said they didn’t know. Among Arabs, Israeli annexation had an 8% approval rating; 54% supported regional or Palestinian rule and 38% said they didn’t know.
In the years 2006-2019, support among Jews for a Palestinian state under certain conditions fell from 71% to 55%, according to an INSS overview from 2020. In 2022, support for a Palestinian state among Jews was at 50% and support in the overall population was at 52%.
The survey released on Monday had a 3.5% margin of error.
