Opinion

Can the US avoid a confrontation with Shi’ite and Sunni jihadists?

The most straightforward jihadism to deal with is the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Members of the Iranian Basij paramilitary force march during the force parade during military maneuvers in Tehran on Jan. 10, 2025. Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images.
Members of the Iranian Basij paramilitary force march during the force parade during military maneuvers in Tehran on Jan. 10, 2025. Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images.
Dr. Eric R. Mandel
Dr. Eric R. Mandel is the director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network, senior security editor of The Jerusalem Report and a contributor to The Hill and The Jerusalem Post. He regularly briefs member of Congress and their foreign-policy advisers about the Middle East.

How do America, Israel and the moderate Muslim nations who share the common interest of advancing security and prosperity in the region shape the Middle East? It begins by acknowledging the fundamental problem of the area is jihadism, whether of the Iranian Shi’ite variety or the Muslim Brotherhood Sunni variation, with all its permutations ranging from ISIS to Hamas to Al-Qaeda to Turkey and Qatar.

Suppose the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and other moderate states are on the same page, acting in concert to lessen the influence of jihadists that threaten their states and American foreign-policy interests. In that case, we can formulate strategies to lower the flames of regional instability.

The de-escalation policy of now former President Joe Biden, which avoided pre-emptive actions and used minimal force in response to attacks, emboldened jihadists of all stripes and increased the chance for war instead of its goal to lower the risks. A good example was the Biden administration’s feckless response to Iranian-directed Iraqi militias against our soldiers, which encouraged more attacks and more service members suffering from traumatic brain injuries.

The most straightforward jihadism to deal with is the Islamic Republic of Iran. With its proxy system degraded, a window of opportunity exists to bring the supreme leader and his Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to their knees. That means pre-emptively attacking their nuclear program—he one card they hold that could turn the region into an Armageddon of kinetic wars.

 America needs to appreciate what the Israelis and the moderate Arab states understand: Given the fundamental jihadist belief system of the “Twelver Shi’ites” sect, which controls Iran, they are willing to use a nuclear weapon against Israel and, at a minimum, threaten America’s Gulf allies with a nuclear strike. The best one can hope for is that a nuclear arms race will follow, but likely something much worse might follow.

Damaging the nuclear program is the first step. A strategy for regime change to help the Iranian people rise against the mullahs also must be implemented in conjunction with kinetic strikes on the nuclear infrastructure, which requires no American boots on the ground. This means maximum sanctions beyond what the first Trump administration imposed—secondary sanctions on the purchasers of Iranian oil, including the fossil fuels diverted through Iraq.

It also means with Iran’s air-defense system destroyed, that with every Houthi attack against international shipping in the Red Sea or targeting Israel, the response should be to target the source of Houthi missiles and financing, Iran. With every Houthi missile sent, a response should strike the Iranian economic and energy infrastructure. The lesson learned from Israel’s wars against Iranian proxies is that Iran itself must pay the price, as the supreme leader is happy to fight to the last drop of Houthi blood.

The much more complex problem is the Sunni jihadist world. Between 85% to 90% of the Muslim world is Sunni, and if just 10% are jihadist, that means 100 million people. Turkey is the home base of the Muslim Brotherhood, with the majority of the population voting regularly for Islamists. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his AKP party are not going anywhere and have neo-Ottoman hegemonic ambitions that rival the ambitions of the Shi’ite jihadists. Syria will serve as the Turkish playground now that the Iranians, for the time being, are on the outs since the Sunni jihadists, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, have taken over.

A primary financial source of Sunni jihadism today is Qatar, a nation that thinks it can play all sides without sustaining any consequences. Even though it is Sunni, it has common interests with Iran, as they share the world’s largest gas field. Washington abandoned the isolation of Qatar because of the Gulf state’s powerful lobby, and because of how many Americans and corporations are in bed with the Qataris. With trillions of dollars in wealth, despite a population that could fit into a neighborhood in Brooklyn, N.Y., it will take executive leadership to leverage our influence on Qatar to end their funding of Sunni jihadists. 

This is where U.S. President Donald Trump’s legacy and America’s interest in shaping security in the Middle East are needed.

Turkey is a more difficult challenge, as it will continue to turn more to China unless it is forced to pay a price for betraying American and NATO interests by supporting Islamists and threatening American allies, Israel and the Kurds. Erdoğan has spent the last 20 years making all parts of the Turkish administrative and military state Islamic or powerless so that even the passing of Erdoğan won’t change the Islamist course of Turkey.

However, America does have an influence. Turkey believes that the American Incirlik Air Base, on their territory, is indispensable to U.S. interests. It is indeed valuable but not indispensable. Washington should begin the process of seriously investigating alternatives in nearby non-Islamist nations; that should get Erdoğan’s attention.

The Qataris feel the same about the U.S. military base in Doha, the Al Udeid facility where the U.S. Central Command, CENTCOM, is located. A couple of years ago, I reminded Qatari leaders that I met with that the UAE, whom they perceive as a rival and adversary, was willing to build a comparable facility for the United States, which made them apoplectic. With a coordinated strategic plan with our allies, we can use this leverage. Qatar must not dictate policy to America.

A comprehensive strategy for the United States to defeat Sunni and Shi’ite Iranian jihadism in partnership with Israel and Saudi Arabia requires:

  • Enhanced intelligence sharing and coordinated cyber defense;
  • Joint counterterrorism task forces with the ability to conduct special operations;
  • Formalizing joint air-defense systems;
  • Diplomatic isolation and sanctions on nations who support jihadism;
  • Countering jihadist ideology with de-radicalization programs; and, 
  • Investing in humanitarian, health care and social services in the Arab world.

Jihadism is the primary threat in the Middle East. Realizing that and developing a comprehensive policy to address it should be a foreign-policy imperative of the Trump administration.

It is counterintuitive, but if the United States wants to stay out of wars, support allies like Israel who fight by themselves and advance its interests, then it must move from a strategy that prioritizes the defensive de-escalation posture of the Biden administration to one that pre-empts jihadist mischief, as waiting to respond is a losing proposition in this region.

The opinions and facts presented in this article are those of the author, and neither JNS nor its partners assume any responsibility for them.
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