As a preamble to his farewell address earlier this week, U.S. President Joe Biden took credit for the recently negotiated ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
While the terms of the current deal mirror those of one Biden proposed in May, Hamas refused to agree because they understandably believed that Biden would pressure Israel into making more concessions. They also held out hope that Iran and its terror proxies would come to their rescue.
In contrast, Israel reluctantly agreed to Biden’s proposal last spring. Its hesitation was based on the reasonable belief that if they rejected the deal, the Biden administration would undermine Israel’s war effort. But because American support for Israel’s war effort is so critical and bringing home as many hostages as possible is such a priority, Israel signed onto the deal in May.
Needless to say, circumstances have changed since May.
Yahya Sinwar is dead. Hezbollah has been neutered (literally and figuratively.) Bashar Assad of Syria is gone, and Iran has been dramatically weakened militarily. But not even those changes in circumstances alone were enough to persuade Hamas to accept the current deal. Hamas could still count on the appeasement, surrender and “de-escalation” model of foreign policy advocated by the Biden administration and the ascendancy of the antisemitic progressive wing of the Democratic Party for their salvation.
And while degrading its enemies has enhanced Israel’s security, these new facts on the ground alone were not sufficient to persuade Israel that America had its back. Much of its success against Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iran has been achieved by ignoring the advice and objections of the Biden administration.
The realization that President-elect Donald Trump is taking the oath of office on Jan. 20 is the difference maker for Hamas and Israel. Hamas now believes this is the best deal they can hope for. Israel now feels secure knowing they are dealing with an Administration that has its back. Trump’s record on Israel in his first term speaks for itself.
However, as it relates to the current hostage deal, words matter.
Trump made clear that “there will be hell to pay” if the hostages are not released by his inauguration day.
Mike Waltz, Trump’s national security advisor, when asked about the arrangement stated: “We’ve made it very clear to the Israelis, and I want the people of Israel to hear me on this, if they need to go back in, we’re with them. … If Hamas doesn’t live up to the terms of this agreement, we are with them.”
During his confirmation hearing to be the U.S. secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth told his Senate inquisitors that he supports “Israel destroying and killing every last member of Hamas.”
Similarly, Marco Rubio, Trump’s nominee for secretary of state has built his reputation as a foreign-policy expert in large part on his unwavering support for the Jewish state.
Compare these words and deeds to the pathetic record of the Biden White House. History will not treat the Biden administration kindly.
It is not possible to know today if this is a good deal for Israel and Palestinian civilians. Those are the only people who matter in this equation.
Prospectively, there are three factors to consider when passing final judgment on the deal.
First, is Hamas destroyed as a fighting force and governing entity? No deal can be considered a success unless Hamas has been vanquished.
Remnants of the terrorist organization will undoubtedly linger; the issue is whether they are relevant to the rebuilding and governing of Gaza. It is currently unknown who will fill the void left by the defeat of Hamas. Regardless of who that is, only Israel can provide security for itself and the Palestinians. Therefore, for the foreseeable future, Israel cannot agree to fully withdraw from Gaza or agree not to re-enter it should the need arise. It must always be free to bring the war to Hamas, its terrorist allies, or any other organization that threatens Israel’s national security.
In particular, Israel must maintain control over the Philadelphi Corridor, the border between Gaza and Egypt. It was through that border that most of Hamas’s weapons have been smuggled. Israel cannot rely on Egypt or any international body to be the guarantor of its security.
Second, have the hostages been freed? It is believed there are 98 hostages left in Gaza, seven of whom are Americans. It is not known precisely how many are dead or alive. Thirty-three are to be returned in the first phase of the agreement. In exchange, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, many of whom are serving life sentences for murdering Israelis.
The first 33 hostages are the easy part. As the negotiations enter Phase 2, questions of Israeli troop withdrawals and who will govern Gaza in the wake of Hamas’s defeat will become more prominent. It is difficult to see how any more hostages will be freed by Hamas without the promise of a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and guarantees of a Hamas role in governing Gaza. Israel will never agree to either.
While the Biden administration would likely pressure Israel into making these concessions, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is convinced that Trump will not. This, more than any other reason, made the deal is possible.
It is during Phase 2 that the deal may fall apart requiring the Israel Defense Forces to fully re-engage in Gaza. History has shown that only brute force can convince Hamas to surrender and give up the hostages.
Finally, will there be regime change in Iran? Even if Hamas is irradicated, unless there is regime change in Iran, this cycle will only repeat itself. The ayatollah is laser-focused on destroying Israel. He principally relies on proxies to advance that goal. We should never forget that Oct. 7 was an attack by Iran on Israel. Hamas was only its weapon of choice.
Hopefully, there is a side agreement between Israel and the incoming Trump administration to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and further weaken the regime. It will then be up to the Iranian people to topple the mullahs. If there is regime change in Tehran, Hamas and its fellow terror proxies will be mortally wounded. Without a benefactor, these groups have no future. In short, whether or not there is a hostage deal with Hamas, regime change in Iran is essential for the security of Israel and the region.
It makes sense for Israel to do this deal. At a minimum, it is an opportunity to gain the release of 33 hostages without compromising its national security. It will further demonstrate how Israeli society is a culture of life and a beacon of Western civilization surrounded by nihilistic death cults and evil savages.
Biden may have dreamed up the deal, but Trump is its true architect. Time will tell if it succeeds, but it is certainly worth the effort.