After taking a brutal beating for 15 months, Hamas has finally agreed to a ceasefire with Israel. Instead of surrendering, the terror organization is claiming victory. Indeed, a senior Hamas official told the BBC they were victorious because “Israel failed to break the will of the Palestinians, the resistance, or to push the people out of the country.” In fact, Hamas is delusional. They have lost in every common sense of the word.
But the delusion of victory is enticing. Even as Gaza lies in ruins, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps called the ceasefire a “great victory.” Anti-Israel groups, the kind that calls to “globalize the intifada” on U.S. college campuses, concur. The Palestinian Youth Movement, for example, stated on its Facebook page: “The Palestinian resistance has prevailed against Israel’s military objectives.”
To claim Hamas achieved victory is as pathetic and ludicrous as claiming Israel committed genocide. Just as those who accuse Israel of genocide have to twist the term’s definition to fit their argument, Hamas supporters have created a new definition of victory—survival. Hamas has seemingly lived to fight another day, and still insist they will repeat Oct. 7 again and again.
Assuredly, the Hamas of Oct. 6, 2023, has not survived. It lost tens of thousands of fighters, most of its infrastructure, all its top leaders and achieved none of its objectives.
Yet, just as assuredly, Israel has not won the war. It received no surrender, and it was pressure by then-President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump that caused Israel to accept a ceasefire involving a near total withdrawal from Gaza.
Undeniably, too, Hamas remains in charge of Gaza and will have the chance to regroup. Moreover, Michael Rubin of the Middle East Forum Observer believes Israel accepted “an extraordinarily bad deal,” which rewards terror and returns convicted terrorists to the battlefield.
The deal leaves Hamas looking strong and poised to take over the Palestinian-controlled areas of Judea and Samaria. Rubin says, “By throwing a lifeline to Hamas and allowing it to claim victory, [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu is essentially promoting Hamas in the leadership struggle to succeed [Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud] Abbas.”
Can Israel recover from this setback? Can it rejoin the battle to defeat Hamas? Surely, if Hamas overplays its hand and violates the ceasefire—as it likely will—Israel, with Trump’s support, could still emerge the winner. The final question is, what would an Israeli victory look like?
Israel devastated Hamas. The Israel Defense Forces have killed some 17,000 to 20,000 terrorists, reducing Hamas to a guerrilla army with no central command structure as Israel also eliminated almost all its leadership. The once mighty terror organization that invaded Israel on Oct. 7 and methodically raped, tortured, burned, murdered and kidnapped approximately 1,500 mostly Jewish civilians no longer exists.
Hamas also lost strategically, as its sponsor and its allies were severely crippled. Hezbollah, which joined Hamas’s assault against Israel on Oct. 8, shooting thousands of rockets at the Jewish state, suffered devastating losses after the IDF counterattacked the Lebanon-based Iranian proxy. Like Hamas, Hezbollah lost most of its military capabilities and its leadership, including its supreme leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
Iran entered the fray in April last year, firing nearly 200 missiles and drones at Israel, followed by a similar assault in October. These attacks had little more effect than fireworks as nearly all of Iran’s projectiles were intercepted by Israel and its allies. Israel counterattacked, severely crippling Iran’s missile infrastructure and air defenses.
In December, Syrian rebels, taking advantage of Iran’s weakness and that of Hezbollah, quickly overran the forces of dictator Bashar Assad, destroying his regime in just over a week. Thus, within about a year, Israel’s efforts neutralized all but one of Hamas’s allies—the Yemen-based Houthis.
Top Hamas officials themselves admit the “Al-Aqsa Flood” was a disaster for them. One senior Hamas official told Saudi media, “The Al-Aqsa Flood attack backfired on us, submerging us in a sea of blood and crises.” Late last month, Hamas sources acknowledged that the IDF successfully neutralized most of their military capabilities in Gaza. Hamas sources speaking with Saudi newspaper Al-Sharq Al-Awsat revealed that fighters in Gaza had to make decisions independently without receiving direct orders from senior command, most of whom Israel eliminated.
Hamas is down, but certainly not out. The terrorist group is in tatters, but is still functioning and still in charge of Gaza. Furthermore, support for the terrorist group remains strong, if not stronger than before Oct. 7. The latest polls show almost two-thirds of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza want Hamas to be part of, or even lead, a new Palestinian government. The group remains much more popular than Abbas’s Palestinian Authority.
Israel crushed Hamas, but didn’t achieve a decisive victory. Instead, its leaders grudgingly agreed to a ceasefire under relentless pressure from both Biden and Trump that will require Israel to withdraw nearly all its forces from Gaza and free thousands of terrorists, including hard-core murderers, in exchange for its hostages.
Israel can still achieve victory. Indeed, the ceasefire will inevitably fail because Hamas’s overriding aim remains the destruction of Israel. Moreover, Hamas cannot control the actions of its individual fighters as its command structure is destroyed. If and when Hamas violates the ceasefire, Trump has promised to give Israel his full support to proceed with destroying the terrorist group’s remaining forces, vowing that his administration will “make sure Gaza never again becomes a terrorist safe haven.”
Hamas cannot rationally claim victory. On Oct. 6, Hamas boasted a full-fledged army. Today, its territory has been razed, most of its tunnels destroyed, its terrorist infrastructure crippled and its leadership on life support. Still, Hamas hasn’t completely disappeared. If Israel and the United States fail to keep a tight grip on Iran’s throat or fail to forcefully rejoin the battle against Hamas, the Gaza terrorists will surely rearm and regroup. In short, Israel faces the choice of decisive victory … or a repeat of the same disastrous fate that befell it on Oct. 7.
For Israel to achieve safety and security for its people, its leaders must fulfill their promise to decisively end Hamas’s rule over Gaza. Israel with support from the United States must deliver a crushing blow both to Iran and its proxies in the global jihad, effectively putting their axis of evil out of business.
Originally published by Facts and Logic About the Middle East (FLAME).